Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
